Re: Stagecoach preferred bidder for Southern?

On 29 Sep, 23:18, Barry Salter <salt...@nospam.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> Railist wrote:
> > Someone who works on the railways has told me this, but when is the
> > official announcement due? (I can't think how they would know this
> > kind of thing)
>
> Given the Invitation to Tender has yet to be issued, with the winning
> bidder to be announced in Summer 2009 for a September start, I don't
> really see how there can be a "preferred" bidder yet.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Barry

Totally correct - in fact the preparation for the ITT is still
struggling. Network Rail has given the DfT the timetable it wants SC
to operate - it is completely rubbish and would need additional trains
to resource it (very inefficient etc. etc.) - so the DfT is now
looking for someone else to write the timetable for it! (this is the
DfT that constantly says it doesn't set timetables for TOCs etc.
etc.).
The timetable has to be in the ITT, so until that is resolved I don't
see how the final ITT can be issued, so bidders can't even start work
properly.

Remember that the way franchise bids work now is that each of the
bidders (four in this case) will be given a code name and most of the
civil servants will work to the code name only. They won't know who
the bidders are. In addition the DfT will be presented with the
"winning bid" without the name of the winner on it, so that a minister
can't turn it down "because he/she doesn't like the frabchise going to
a specific bdder". Only when the Minister has approved the bid will
the name be revealed.

There are rules about no company owning more than a certain percentage
of the passenger flows across the UK - they would be discounted at pre-
qualifying so a minister would have no reason to say "Company X can't
have this TOC because they already have a lot of TOCs." once the name
was revealed.

Thus the rumours about who may have won are very difficult to follow.
There are clues who may NOT be winning when a company finds the DfT
has stopped talking to them a few weeks before the announcement is
due, but generally the DfT will keep two bidders talking right up to
the announcement in case there is a last minute hitch with the
preferred bidder.

So - when we get to rumour time I'd expect two names to be floating
around and the winner to be one of these.. BUT even the winner may not
know for sure until the night before it is announced. They get the
call after the markets have closed so nobody can make a killing on the
company shares.

Tony
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